التكنولوجيا وأخبارها بوابة الإمارات لتكنولوجيا المعلومات والإتصالات
Alpho: Hospitality industry after Covid-19 expects long and slow recovery
The travel and tourism industry contributes 3 to 3.5% of
the global GDP. If we also count related industries, the
total contribution of tourism to the global GDP nears 10%.
The entire part of the global economy was hit hard with the
coronavirus pandemics. As the economies were locked
down, the revenue declined by more than 90%. Now the
economies reopen, it may be estimated the hospitality
industry would recover. According to Alpho analysts it will
very likely take a long time.
Stocks of global leading brands like Marriott International,
Hilton Worldwide, InterContinental Hotels Group, Best
Western, and more, fell mostly by 50% to 60% between
the mid of February and March.
Since then, the stocks have not fully recovered. The market
price developed for several weeks close to the levels of
2016 or 2017. They reached mostly 70% to 80% of the
mid-February levels, and they are being traded on those
levels until today.
But there would be still one hit segment of the hospitality
industry, which is the conference tourism. For example, the
Marriott International CEO Arne Sorenson expects the full
recovery may not be coming before the end of 2021. What’s
coming back first are the domestic travellers who are
haltingly returning to leisure travel, particularly at drive-to
destinations, guests who join us via the nostalgic road trip.
This will be followed by domestic air travel, then
international air travel, and finally, by group travel“, Mr.
Sorenson said.
There is still risk of the outbreak of the second wave of the
pandemics, however experts believe that it would not be
necessary to lockdown the entire countries like during the
first wave. Alpho analysed the industry recovery after the
2008-2009 recession to learn that it took three years to
start accelerating, and about seven years in order to reach
the number of transactions of the pre-crisis level.
We can also expect that countries which rely on tourism
crucially would accept measures to attract the client from
abroad, especially Mediterranean countries. It is also very
likely that tourists would prefer countries with relatively
low number of Covid-19 cases, so the risk of infection is
also very low.
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